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Prediction for CME (2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-04T04:13Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33751/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: This CME is faintly visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and to the south in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source appears to be two eruptions in close proximity to each other in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk. A dimming region possibly associated with a faint filament eruption is visible in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2024-10-04T02:00Z in the SW near ARs 13842, 13839, and 13844 followed by moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 171 starting around 2024-10-04T03:00Z in the SW below ARs 13844, 13843, and 13836. The moving/opening field lines are largely visible heading to the west while the dimming appears to have some southern directionality. A third separate eruption from AR 13842 (an M4.0 flare) is likely associated with an overlapping CME feature. Both SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs have data gaps during this event. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
SIDC URSIGRAM 41005
...
Coronal mass ejections: A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 04:24 UTC on Oct 04 (as detected by CACTUS tool),
on the W limb. First analysis of this CME shows that it was possibly
associated with the filament eruption in the SW quadrant of the Sun. It has
a projected speed of abput 550 km/s and a projected width of about 114
degree (as detected by CACTUS tool). It will possibly miss the Earth, but a
glancing blow may be possible on Oct 07. No other Earth-directed CMEs were
detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.






  
  
    
    
      
        
        
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
            
              
              
              sidctech@oma.be
              
              
              2024-10-05T23:24:05
              
              
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                        2024-10-07T04:00:00
Lead Time: 46.80 hour(s)
Difference: 18.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-10-05T23:24Z
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